2019 NVSL Divisional Predictions: D13 – D17
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Division 17: Nowhere to Go but Up
Division 17 will welcome one new member this season with Lincolnia Park joining after a rough season in Division 15. Fortunately for them, the prospects of having a much better season are pretty high. Their biggest competition at the top of the division will be Newington Forest. The Neptunes went 4-1 last year and arguably had a case to move out of division 16 by scoring only 12 points less than the division champions and winning divisional relays by 26 points. The simulations have Newington Forest pulling out the victory over Lincolnia Park by an average score of 225-173.
As for the rest of the division, the simulations expect the same results as last year with little opposition to Lincolnia Park and Newington Forest.
Division 16: The Vikings Conquest?
Pleasant Valley rises from Division 17! After only a year in Division 17, the Piranhas return to Division 16. Their last stop in Division 16 was in 2017, where they went 0-5. And unfortunately, the simulations have a repeat performance waiting for them upon arrival.
This appears to be a tightly contested division, with Village West being the team to beat. The Vikings aren’t going unblemished according to the simulations, however, with Commonwealth coming out on top against them despite Village West winning last year’s meet 227-192. The simulations give Commonwealth the edge 213-204, winning 15 of the 25 possible outcomes.
Don’t be surprised if Broyhill Crest steals a meet or two from their opponents. The simulations already have them beating Pleasant Valley and Long Branch, but only losing to their other three opponents by a combined 21 points.
Almost all of the meets in Division 16 look to be close ones, so the final results may look very different than below:
Division 15: Warriors Win!
The biggest storyline coming out of Division 15 might just be how good the Woodley Warriors performed. Woodley is predicted to lose only 17 of their 125 total simulations, putting them at 5-0 in these predictions.
The second biggest storyline, or question rather, might be “What happened to Lake Braddock”? After going 3-2 in Division 15 last year, the simulations predict the Lakers having a harder time in 2019. This may be because of the new competition, but they beat fellow 2019 competitor, Herndon, last season 227-190, why wouldn’t that happen again?
The simulations give the slightest of edges to Herndon this year, with their 25 possible meet outcomes last year being split 13-12 in favor of Herndon, and an average score of 211-207.
Other than Woodley, this should be a tight division with many close meets that could cause the final table to look much different than the below:
Division 14: Old vs. New
Three teams return to Division 14 that competed in this division last year, and it looks like those three might be the favorites. The simulations have Holmes Run Acres, Rolling Valley, and Burke Station finishing first, second, and third respectively – the same order they finished last season.
A caveat to Holmes Run – with three weeks competed in their home pool in 2018, these performances last season had to be converted from yards times to meter times, so some of the simulations aren’t perfect. The same can be said for Rolling Valley and Burke Station, who both competed in one meet last season at Holmes Run’s yard pool. Nevertheless, expect the ‘Old Guard’ of Division 14 to have the upper hand on the newcomers.
Daventry looks to have an uphill battle in store for them. After an undefeated season in Division 16, the jump to Division 14 looks to be too much for them to handle at the moment, as the simulations have them going 0-5 with their closest defeat being by 21 points.
Rolling Forest and Sully Station II give the returning Division 14 teams a better fight, but they still come up short and return to the lower half of the division standings for the second year in a row.
|Holmes Run Acres||5||0||0|
|Sully Station II||1||4||0|
Division 13: Too Close to Call
Our first tie at the top of a division! There were no ties for division championships in 2018 and only one in 2017 (FMW and SHR in Division 9). The simulations have Brookfield and Forest Hollow both going 4-1, with their head to head being one of the hardest to call. The W-L split went 13-12 in favor of Brookfield with the average score 208-206 to Forest Hollow. Feel free to make your own decision on that one, but the nod was given to Brookfield for the W-L split.
That wasn’t the only close predictions in Division 13. For example, Brookfield’s five meets are predicted as follows: 206-208 (FH), 210-208 (CW), 213-207 (FX), 211-208 (SV), 204-215 (SRA). Needless to say, it looks like the NVSL Seeding Committee got this one right and nobody will run away with this division.
Canterbury Woods will be dropping three divisions from Division 10, and it looks like they found a good fit as they will be right in the thick of things with these teams. Similarly, Fox Hunt is jumping up two divisions from Division 15 that they waltzed through to the tune of 1357.5 dual meet points and a dominant 50 point divisional relays meet victory. Division 13 should put them in much closer meets that will test them.