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Division 6: Who has What it Takes?
Entering the top third of the NVSL, Division 6 is commonly where teams see whether they have what it takes to compete with the best of the NVSL. Interestingly enough, all the teams in Division 6 either moved back from a better division or held true and competed in Division 6 last season.
Those from Division 6 last year look to be the favorites this year. The simulations like Mantua to win the division, with Villa Aquatic following closely behind them. Last year Mantua edged out Villa Aquatic 211-209. The simulations have the meet not quite as close, with the Marlins still winning 218-202.
Three teams from Division 5 in 2018 are predicted to be battling at the bottom of Division 6 in 2019. The simulations have Greenbriar, Dunn Loring, and Pinecrest all going 1-4, with their one win coming against one of the others. As for former Division 4 competitor Lakevale Estates, they are predicted to fall nicely in between the top and bottom teams.
Division 5: Making New Friends: The Sequel
The second division with teams who didn’t race each other in 2018, Division 5 includes the team who made the biggest division improvement of 2019. Sideburn Run jumped four divisions from Division 9 into what looks like a division with some of the hottest teams in the NVSL. Other than Sideburn Run, Walden Glen is moving up from Division 8, Kent Gardens from Division 7, and Orange Hunt from Division 6.
These simulations also have to have a similar asterisk by them as Division 14, as Kent Gardens’ home pool times are in yards and had to be converted. Even with that asterisk, the Dolphins still appear to be one of the favorites to win this division. Kent Gardens and Orange Hunt are the favorites of the simulations and could continue their rises to the top of the NVSL. The previously mentioned Sideburn Run may also have a solid season, as the simulations have them going 3-2.
Lee-Graham and Ravensworth Farm are heading in the opposite direction of the other four teams in their division. After sub-par performances in 2018, they are predicted to not fare much better in 2019. Both teams will look to regroup and remind the NVSL that they are some of the best teams in the league.
Division 4: Redemption Story
2018 was rough for Vienna Aquatic, who went winless in Division 2. 2019 could be a big bounce back for them, with a predicted 5-0 finish and the possibility of moving back up to the top three divisions. Vienna Aquatic is followed closely by many teams, namely Fair Oaks, Cardinal Hill, and Oakton. Fair Oaks won Division 6 last season with an undefeated record and little opposition. The simulations predict them to have another strong season, finishing 4-1.
Cardinal Hill and Oakton are the top two finishers from Division 5 last year, with Oakton edging out Cardinal Hill in the last meet of the season 218-202. As expected, the simulations have this competition very close this year as well. The average score of their 25 possible meet outcomes from last year ends up in a 210-210 tie. Cardinal Hill won more of the simulations 14-11, so the edge was given to them to come out on the right side of their meet with the Otters this year.
Hiddenbrook and Virginia Run fill the bottom two spots in the predictions. The Riptide won in the first week of the season last year, but the simulations give the edge to Hiddenbrook in 2019, with a 16-9 record and an average score of 219-201.
Division 3: Hungry Hungry Hippos
Division 3 looks to be a closely contested division that could go many ways. The simulations have second place finisher of 2018 High Point Pool coming out on top in 2019, followed by second-place finisher of Division 4, Vienna Woods. The Division 4 champion Crosspointe isn’t predicted to have as successful of a season as they did last year. Despite winning the division, they lost Divisional Relays to Vienna Woods and had less Dual Meet points than Vienna Woods. The simulation between the two is split 13-12 to Vienna Woods and an average score of 213-207.
Crosspointe, Hunter Mill, and Mount Vernon Park are all predicted to finish 2-3. The meets between the three are very close, with the largest average score difference being Crosspointe over Hunter Mill 215-205. While these three teams might have the closest meets, the division, in general, will be very tight. Don’t be surprised if the table below looks nothing like the final standings at the end of this season:
|High Point Pool||5||0||0|
|Mount Vernon Park||2||3||0|
Division 2: Division 1B
Some may say that Division 2 is the division to be in. Teams get to avoid the best of the best while still compete at a very high level and see close meets every week. 2019 should be no exception. Langley will join Division 2 after dipping their toe in the waters of Division 1 last season. Unfortunately for the Wildthings, the simulations predict them to have another rough season. Maybe it was all too much too soon for Langley. Their performance in Division 1 resembles that of Vienna Woods in 2012 and Hamlet in 2015. Vienna Woods went on to a 2-3 record in Division 3 in 2013 while Hamlet went 5-0 in Division 2 in 2016 so using their past results as an indicator to how Langley will do isn’t viable. The best assumption might be somewhere in the middle of that, but according to these predictions, it will be another winless season for Langley unless they can turn it around.
2018 Division 3 champion Hunt Valley returns to Division 2 for the sixth time in seven years. They are predicted to hold their own with their fellow competitors. The team that is predicted to win Division 2 in 2019 is Fairfax. Fairfax went 4-1 last year in Division 2 and would be expected to compete for the top spot of the division regardless of what these predictions may say.
A common theme throughout this overview, expect this division to have many close meets that could make or break many of the teams seasons.
|Little Rocky Run||4||1||0|
Division 1: The Best of All the Rest
The division that decides the champion of the NVSL is always on everyone’s mind. From a predictions perspective, however, this one is fairly straightforward. Chesterbrook and Overlee have dominated the NVSL for what seems like forever, Tuckahoe is a constant, and McLean and Highlands Swim have made names for themselves over the recent years.
Chesterbrook won Division 1 last season, and they did so in dominating fashion. The Tigersharks put up an almost unheard of 1435 Dual Meet points. Their 2374 Total Points (Dual Meet + Divisional Relays + All Star Relays) is the most by any team since 2003 and it isn’t close. There would be no reason to predict Chesterbrook to fall to Overlee this year, and the simulations have a hard time doing that as well with Overlee only winning 5 of the 25 possible outcomes.
The new team to Division 1 isn’t so new to the division. Wakefield Chapel has been in Division 1 four of the past six seasons. The bad news: History and the simulations aren’t on Wakefield Chapel’s side. Since 2002, new teams to Division 1 are a combined 17-78 and have only had two winning seasons. The new teams to Division 1 haven’t won a meet since 2012 (Highlands Swim). The simulations have them going 0-5 and not putting up much of a fight in any meet. The good news: There isn’t much to put here other than the NVSL Seeding Committee believes you are the best of the rest to take a shot at the Division 1 powerhouses. The rest of the NVSL is on your side, and it would make a great underdog story.
There it is, predictions for the 2019 NVSL season. Something to motivate the coaches and swimmers reading this: prove these simulations wrong. An analysis will be done at the end of the season to see just how right or wrong these were — we can’t wait to write about it (Looking at you, Wakefield Chapel)!
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