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Division 12: Even Closer to Call

If Division 13 looked tight to you, get ready for Division 12. The simulations have four teams at the top of the division going 3-2. The last time anything similar to this happening was in 2013 when five teams went 3-2 in Division 12. This prediction will almost certainly be proven wrong, and it will be interesting to see who can come out on top of this seemingly deadlocked division.

Four of the six teams competed against each other in Division 13 last year and they beat up on each other, including a tie between Truro and Hayfield Farm. Expect close meets again this year as the teams look to differentiate themselves from the rest.

South Run used to be a top division mainstay. The Seahawks joined the NVSL in 1987 and within four seasons were competing in Division 3. They held no worse than Division 5 until 2012 where they dropped to Division 9 and have bounced around in that range since.  They will be looking for this season to be one where they can separate from their recent history and make their way back to the top of the NVSL.

Another fact: Springboard had the lowest division finish of any team last year (Division 13, fifth place) that also had a relay attend All Star Relays. The Barracudas will look to build on the kind of team depth that is necessary to produce All Star Relay caliber relays.

Division 11: Cobias-Coaster

Cottontail has one of the wilder recent team histories. After charging from Division 15 to Division 4 in seven years (2010-2016), the Cobias have had a very hard time. They haven’t won a meet since, dropping back to Division 11 after three consecutive 0-5 seasons. Fortunately for them, their rollercoaster ride isn’t over and the simulations have them bouncing back to win Division 11.

Cottontail is followed by Little Hunting Park in the predicted standings, going 4-1. After a 4-0-1 season in Division 13 last year, the Gators may be making a name for themselves as they continue to climb the NVSL ladder.

The middle of this division will be tight, but Mansion House will have their work cut out for them. The simulations have them struggling in a few meets and ending up at the bottom of the division. After going winless in Division 9 last season, they will be looking to avoid that same fate in 2019.

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Division 10: The Baby is All Grown Up

Did Somerset-Olde Creek underperform in 2018? The Stingrays went a modest 2-3 in Division 10 last season but had more Dual Meet Points than 4-1 Great Falls. They lost to Annandale 197-212 in 2018, an opponent again in 2019, yet the simulations have their 25 meet W-L split 21-3-1 with an average score of 224-187. Don’t be shocked if Somerset-Olde Creek puts up some impressive numbers this season.

The other team that will be looking for the Division 10 crown is Rutherford. The simulations have them going 4-1, falling to SOC 205-213. With other close meets predicted for the Water Rats, including Laurel Hill and Hollin Meadows, even if they do get past the Stingrays they need to ensure they don’t get tripped up in another meet.

The baby of the NVSL, Laurel Hill, is now in their best division in their very short history. Since joining the NVSL in 2006, the Tritons have been on a very steady rise and have only gone backwards in division once. The simulations have them holding their own in uncharted territory, going a respectable 3-2.

Division 9: Making New Friends

Division 9 is one of two divisions with teams who didn’t compete against each other at all in 2018, making it one of the more interesting to dissect. Sully Station is the team the simulations like the most followed closely by 2018 Division 12 champion Brandywine. Brandywine put up the third-best Dual Meet performance of 2018 (behind the aforementioned Fox Hunt Splash and yet to be discussed Chesterbrook Tigersharks), so seeing them predicted to finish near the top again should be no surprise to anyone.

In the middle of the pack is former Division 1 regular Fairfax Station. The Goliath that they were has met a few David’s recently, but after a solid 4-1 campaign in Division 11 last year, they are looking to get back to competing with the best of the NVSL.

In contrast to Brandywine and Fairfax Station, Poplar Tree appears to be on a downward spiral. After going winless in Division 5 last season, the simulations have them grabbing a tough win against Great Falls but that is it, ending up with a 1-4 record that could lead to them entering a double-digit division for the first time since 1992.

Division 8: Teams on the Rise

The simulations predict another tie at the top of Division 8 between Lakeview and Fox Mill Woods. Their head-to-head went to Lakeview, with a 15-9-1 W-L outcome and an average score of 218-201. The team to beat Lakeview? Camelot, with a nearly identical simulation breakdown of 15-9-1 and an average score of 218-202.

Virginia Hills has been impressive over the recent years, and that might be understating it. Since 2011, the Tidal Wave is 32-8, which has led them from Division 17 up to Division 8. The simulations have this season being harder for them than they may be used to, but they are still predicted to come out with a winning record.

Another team that has been on the rise recently isn’t predicted to have the same kind of fortune that Virginia Hills is. Old Keene Mill was in Division 15 only five seasons ago, and after a just as impressive 17-2-1 record since then, they arrive in Division 8. Despite rolling through their Division 11 opponents last year to an undefeated season, the simulations think that this may be too much too soon for the Ospreys.

Division 7: Familiar Foes

Division 7 has four of the six same teams as it did last year, and the simulations have them finishing in a completely different order than last year. The nod this year goes to Country Club Hills, who had the second most points of the division last season and somehow finished with a 2-3 record.

The biggest takeaway may be the forecasted fall of Dominion Hills. After finishing in second place with a 3-2 record last season, the simulations find the warriors going 0-5. This finish may not be that unfathomable as the Warriors ended up with the fifth most Dual Meet Points in Division 7 last season, placed last at Divisional Relays, and sent no relay teams to All Star Relays. Dominion Hills will look to prove that 2018 wasn’t a fluke after almost everything indicates they over-performed.

With four of the same six teams still in the same division, there are a lot of familiarities here. In fact, Dominion Hills and Arlington Forest have been in the same division since 2014. This should cause many close and fierce meets.

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